Canadians will choose a Minority Government

Campaign Research has conducted a national public opinion poll with 5039 eligible Canadian voters between October 16th and 20th, 2019. The national horserace numbers and the provincial horserace numbers in British Columbia and Ontario are so close between the support for the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), that it is impossible to predict who will win the most votes, the most seats and ultimately form a government.

Over the last 4 days, nationally, support for all the main parties has remained almost perfectly stable. The graph below shows the support for each party over the course of the election campaign:

In Ontario, the LPC (37%) holds a 4-point lead over the CPC (33%). Support between the LPC and CPC outside the City of Toronto is much closer. The gap on election day in 2015 between the LPC and the CPC was ~10% in favour of the LPC.

In British Columbia, the CPC seems to have a slight lead. There is still a 3-way race and they are statistically tied.

In Atlantic Canada, the LPC still has a significant lead today, but much less that their result in 2015. The Green Party of Canada (GPC) also does very well with 15%.

In Quebec, the LPC leads with 33% and the Bloc Quebecois (BQ) holds 28% support. The CPC is at 16%. The NDP is at 13% while the GPC has fallen to 6%.

In Alberta and Saskatchewan, the CPC dominates the other parties. The CPC also has a significant lead in Manitoba.

In Ontario, the LPC (37%) leads the CPC (33%), while the NDP has settled at 18% and the GPC is up to 9%.

Outside the City of Toronto, the LPC is now statistically tied for 1st place in all other regions of Ontario. It is very close and all within the margin of error. Of note, the CPC seems to be doing better the City of Ottawa while the LPC seems to be doing better in the Southwest Region – than they have over the last few months of polling.

905 West Region - Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brampton South, Brampton West, Dufferin--Caledon, Milton, Mississauga Centre, Mississauga East--Cooksville, Mississauga--Erin Mills, Mississauga--Lakeshore, Mississauga—Malton, Mississauga--Streetsville, Oakville, Oakville North--Burlington, Wellington--Halton Hills

905 West Region - Ajax, Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill, Barrie--Innisfil, Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte, Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound, Durham, King--Vaughan, Markham--Stouffville, Markham--Thornhill, Markham--Unionville, Newmarket--Aurora, Oshawa, Pickering--Uxbridge, Richmond Hill, Simcoe North, Simcoe--Grey, Thornhill, Vaughan—Woodbridge, Whitby, York--Simcoe

Across Canada, the CPC has a significant advantage with men 35 years age and older while the LPC has an advantage with women 55 years of age and older. The NDP does better with younger voters and quite poorly with older voters over 55 years of age.

In battleground Ontario, the CPC has a significant lead with men over the age of 35 while the LPC has a significant lead with all women. The LPC does better with women in Ontario than they do when looking at the entire country.

In British Columbia, the CPC has a large lead with men over 35 years of age and is roughly even with the LPC when it comes to women over the age of 35.

“This race still remains too close to call one way or the other. The electorate seems to be locked in with their choices and there doesn’t seem to be any movement between the parties over the last 4 days. The Campaigns are now beginning to execute on their Election-Day Get-Out-The-Vote operations and as many as 40 Ridings (or more) across the country will be won or lost by 1000 votes. I don’t think the winner will be clear until many hours after the polls close” - said Nick Kouvalis, Principal of Campaign Research Inc.

Nick can be reached at nkouvalis@campaignresearch.ca

Note: Tables with Undecided Voters will be included in this release

Early Voter Data will also be included at the end of this release

METHODOLOGY

This study was conducted by Campaign Research between October 16th and 19th, 2019 through an online survey of 5039 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 1.4%, 19 times out of 20.

The results have been weighted by age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"