NDP is on the rise and could win much of British Columbia, Atlantic Canada and Ontario

October 12th, 2019

Campaign Research has conducted a national public opinion poll with 4037 Canadians. Ten days ago, we reported that Jagmeet Singh of the NDP was experiencing a significant upswing in his “job approval” ratings. This week, we wanted to take another close look to see if the spike in Singh’s job approval rating combined with his well-received debate performance was translating into actual support for the NDP and how that new-found support for Mr. Singh and the NDP was playing out in key battleground regions where the LPC, CPC and NDP were in very competitive races.

First, the NDP is up again, now at 19% (+5) from 9 days ago. This is a big jump and is having the most significant impact in British Columbia where there are 42 seats up for grab, in Ontario where there are 121 seats up for grab and in Atlantic Canada, where there are 32 seats available.

In Ontario, the LPC & CPC remain deadlocked with the NDP seeing an increase to 20% (+4%) and the GPC steady at 10%.

In British Columbia, the CPC has a slight lead, but all 4 parties currently sit between 18% and 29%%.

In Atlantic Canada, there have been significant changes. The LPC is down to 36% (-6) and the GPC is down to 8% (-10). The CPC is up to 28% (+3) and the NDP is up to 22% (+12) over the last 9 days.

In Quebec, the BQ is way up, at 28% (+7). The CPC is down to 14% (-6). The LPC is down to 31% (-3). The NDP is at 15% (+3) while the GPC is at 9% (-2).

In Alberta and Saskatchewan, the CPC dominates. In Manitoba, it’s a closer race with the CPC in the lead.

Battleground Ontario – 121 seats

The LPC and CPC remain deadlocked at 34% and 33% respectively while the NDP has come up to 20% and the GPC is up to 10%. The CPC and LPC have been tied in Ontario since early September.

Outside the City of Toronto and the Eastern Region (Eastern Region does not include the City of Ottawa), the race between the CPC and the LPC is extremely close. In the Hamilton-Niagara Region and the Southwestern Region we see a statistical tie between the CPC, LPC and NDP. The LPC seems to have an advantage in the Northern Region and the City of Ottawa (*small samples). The CPC seems to have an advantage in the York-Simcoe-Durham Regions and the Halton-Peel Region.

We also asked Canadians, if they would (or are) considering voting for any of the “other” political parties so we can try to better understand the potential “floors” and “ceilings” for each party. This analysis also allows us to look closer at each party’s “hard” and “soft” Supporters. This gives us more insight into which party may have a “voter turnout” advantage over the Advanced Poll weekend.

In Ontario, 37% of all voters would consider voting for the CPC whereas 43% of all voters would consider voting for the LPC. The NDP has 40% of all voters “now” willing to consider them and the GPC has 32% of voters that would consider voting for them.

The CPC had 19% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 10% of all voters as “soft” Supporters. “Hard” Supporters (dark blue band) are voters that are voting for one party and are not considering voting for any other party. The LPC had 13% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 17% of all voters as “soft” Supporters. “Soft” Supporters (light blue band) are voters who have indicated that they will vote for a specific party but also would consider at least one other party.

This analysis represented in the bar chart clearly indicates that the CPC has more committed voters than the LPC (in Ontario). This is a strong indicator of a higher turnout for the CPC relative to the LPC, if the election were held today.

In British Columbia, 36% of voters would consider voting CPC. 37% would consider voting LPC. 44% would consider the NDP while 39% would consider the GPC. The NDP has the highest “vote ceiling”.

It is important to note the CPC had 18% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 8% as “soft” Supporters. The LPC had only 11% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 11% as “soft” Supporters. This indicates that the CPC would have a higher turnout, if the election were held today.

In Atlantic Canada, only 32% of voters would consider voting CPC while 45% would consider voting LPC. 41% would consider the NDP while only 33% would consider the GPC. The LPC has the advantage in Atlantic Canada with their “vote ceiling”.

It is important to note the CPC had 16% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 9% as “soft” Supporters while the LPC had 17% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 16% as “soft” Supporters. This indicates that the CPC and LPC had the same number of “hard” Supporters. But, the LPC has a lead on “soft” Supporters and seems to have a significant advantage, if the election were held today.

“Jagmeet Singh is soaring! 50% of Canadians approve of the job he is doing as NDP Leader. The NDP has increased their ballot support by 1/3rd over the last 30 days. With 9 days left in this election, if Jagmeet Singh and the NDP can continue to build on their momentum they could win much of BC, win in Manitoba, win many seats in Ontario, some seats in Quebec and win in Atlantic Canada. With the sudden and astronomical rise that Jagmeet Singh has experienced, I wouldn’t count him nor the NDP out as replacing the Liberals and becoming the chief opponent to the Conservatives in the final stretch of this election campaign”, – said Nick Kouvalis, Principal of Campaign Research Inc. nearly 20%

Nick can be reached at nkouvalis@campaignresearch.ca

METHODOLOGY

This study was conducted by Campaign Research between October 8th and 10th, 2019 through an online survey of 4,037 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 1.54%, 19 times out of 20.

The results have been weighted by age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"